The Illusion of Urgency

From reactor panic to shipping lane drama—why critical thinking is your best investment tool.

I travelled during the first three weeks of June and didn’t cancel my newspaper subscription. Yes, I’m still one of those people who prefer reading a physical newspaper - not on an iPad. So, when I returned, I found a tall pile of “old” newspapers waiting for me in the office. Today, I finally carved out some time to flip through them.

What I found was revealing.

Headlines from just a few weeks ago warned of potential conflict with Iran, surging oil prices, rising taxes, Trump-related developments, and the ongoing tension between Putin and Zelensky. Many of these stories had dramatic short-term impacts on the stock market - but interestingly, stocks have since bounced back, and those news items already feel like forgotten history.

That made me stop and think: which news stories are truly important, and which are just noise? How do we tell the difference? It’s a crucial question - one we don’t spend nearly enough time reflecting on. This article does not intend to be the final word on the topic, but rather something to think about.

Let’s start with this: most news agencies rely heavily on a single primary source - Reuters. Whatever Reuters chooses to highlight in a given moment becomes the day’s dominant narrative. There’s little room to deviate. While a TV journalist might add their own spin, the central topic remains the same - and often, it’s a topic that’s not especially relevant in the long term.

Now, one could take a more skeptical view and suggest that some news is crafted to distract us from what really matters, but I won’t go there, at least not in this piece. Even assuming good intentions, it’s important to remember that newspapers and media outlets sell news. They need to make stories seem urgent and important, often embellishing or dramatizing facts to capture our attention.

Two examples come to mind.

The first occurred at the outset of the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine’s foreign minister tweeted - after U.S. markets had closed - that Russian forces were shooting at a nuclear reactor at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The media picked it up immediately and panic followed. Uranium stocks plummeted and some Australian names dropped nearly 30% in a single day.

Because I’ve followed the uranium sector closely, I recorded a video for our investors explaining why this story couldn’t be true. For starters, nuclear reactors are designed to withstand catastrophic events, like the crash of a Boeing 747, without being breached. Bullets would be completely ineffective.

Second, the Russians aren’t irrational. They know that if a reactor exploded, radioactive particles could easily drift into Russian territory. It would be a disaster for them as well.

There were other reasons too, but that was the gist of it. Based on my conviction that the story was overblown, we took advantage of the market panic and bought as many uranium stocks as we could. It turned out to be an excellent trade, but only because we had deep knowledge of the space.

The second example came just last month, when reports surfaced that Iran was preparing to close the Strait of Hormuz. I’ve written about the complexities and challenges involved in such a move, but the media ran with the story nonetheless. Panel after panel of “experts” debated it, pushing public opinion in all directions.

People get swept up in these waves of commentary. One minute they’re hearing one take, the next they’re hearing the opposite - often from people with limited real expertise.

All this news creates a sense of urgency in us and can lead to decisions that may not serve our best interests in the long run.

So, here’s my advice: when you come across a piece of news that seems major or even life-changing, pause and check the source. More importantly, seek out real experts - people with a deep, measured understanding of the field. They tend to avoid sensationalism and can offer historical context that helps you see the bigger picture.

In a world filled with noise, discernment isn’t just helpful - it’s essential.